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C-SUITE + BOARD STRATEGY

How do we close high value transactions and negotiations with the best deal?

  •     How do we manage stakeholder complexity – competing perceptions, interests and capabilities – to shape good outcomes?
  •     What does the outcome look like currently?
  •     Can we forge agreement on commercial negotiations, anticipate regulations or influence legislation and policy?
  •     What are likely scenarios, risks and uncertainties?
  •     Can we test potential tactics in advance to find the winning strategy?

EXPERIENCE

SENTURION

MAPS OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS
SENTURION maps complex business strategies into the core, people decided issues and stakeholders who compete to influence outcomes – power, positions and interest

TRACKS MULTIPARTY INTERACTIONS
Fuses Noble Prize winning science – behavioral economics, agent based modeling, game and decision theory, social networks and risk analysis – in proven algorithms that ascertain how competing interests and outcomes evolve

IDENTIFIES INFLUENCE PATHS
Finds real and hidden influence networks – capturing millions of possible interactions – to identify tactics and approaches to achieve goals

PRIORITIZES AND SEQUENCES STRATEGIES
Tests alternative scenarios to reveal risks, opportunities and robust winning strategies in advance

ANSWERS CORE QUESTIONS
What is the outcome currently? Can I get what I want? How can I get it? What will it cost me?

POWERFUL AND RELIABLE
Verified and validated by the US Intelligence Community and used by over 35 enterprises

VERIFIED + VALIDATED

The US State Department finds “of the various models tested by the Bureau . . . SENTURION performed with the highest level of accuracy and granularity . . . at over 90% for baseline projections

Declassified evaluations by the US Intelligence Community finds analyst and expert predictions are right less than 50% of the time in complex scenarios, but ACERTAS’ approach is accurate above 85% of the time

The US Intelligence Community selected ACERTAS’ strategy solution SENTURION, as the number one predictive capability in the world – clients include US Government and corporate clients

Corporate executives employ ACERTAS analytics to anticipate events and shape strategy and outcomes, for better and faster results than competitors

SENTURION FAQs + CLIENT QUOTES

DOES SENTURION WORK? WHAT IS THE EVIDENCE AND TRACK RECORD?

SENTURION is a mature, evolving software platform with a successful public track record for over 10 years. Results have been independently verified and validated by numerous government institutions, including the US Department of Defense and Department of State, with accuracy above 90% in a wide variety of applications.

It is also used by major international entities such as the World Bank, the UN and African Union as well as select foreign governments and private sector corporations worldwide.

Below are selections of published and open source client quotes on SENTURION.

Department of State “SENTURION agent based model continues to perform with a high level of accuracy and granularity … achieving an accuracy of over 90% for more than 200 baseline simulations applied to a variety of cases ranging from complex negotiations to anticipation and evolution of conflicts.”

Department of Defense “The [DoD]…has been testing the SENTURION capability since 2002…”

Department of Defense “…As an experiment in applying SENTURION to an unfolding political situation, our test was a success, as judged by assessments by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the Office of Secretary of Defense…”

Wikipedia “In January 2005 [DoD] applied its ‘SENTURION’ predictive analysis software to the Iraqi elections…these analyses were ‘performed and briefed to senior government decision makers well in advance of events…’”

RAND “…the SENTURION model already is being employed by a number of regional combatant commands and other DoD organizations…”

CNN “The State Department is using cutting-edge data gathering technology to help keep the peace in some areas and keep violence from flaring in others, saving both physical and fiscal costs of conflict…”

World Bank: “…multi-country pilot of agent-based stakeholder modeling has demonstrated the potential utility of mainstreaming this type of political analysis throughout the Bank’s work, at various stages of the operational cycle…”

IS SENTURION EASY TO UNDERSTAND? HOW EASY IS IT TO USE?

Over 40 different enterprises use SENTURION, across government and the private sector. Individuals trained include analysts as well as senior level decision makers, as no advanced requirements are necessary. Initial training can be accomplished in as little as 3 days. Regardless of background, most individuals have found SENTURION accessible and simple to use with results easily incorporated into their operations.

Below are selections of published and open source client quotes on SENTURION ease of use.

World Bank “… a user-friendly software application that can easily be loaded onto a laptop…Staff with a background in political science or institutional economics can be trained on the model’s methodology, analytical techniques, and practical application during a three-day hands-on course…”

African Union “The AU Continental Early Warning System participating in SENTURION strategic analytics software training…part of efforts to strengthen conflict prevention and early warning.”

RAND “Moreover, based on the ease with which various military organizations have incorporated the tool, we found few reasons to believe that the Army would have any difficulty in effectively incorporating this model into planning of influence operations.”

World Bank “… teams can thus use this portable tool themselves, on demand, helping to embed political analysis in operational decision making so as to have impact on real-time policy choices…”

RAND “The favorable comments of the users we interviewed suggest that it should be fairly easy for Army and other defense organizations to incorporate the model as a support tool for developing influence strategies.”

World Bank “Implementing the ABSM [SENTURION] gives shape and discipline to political analysis in the Bank, which can be helpful in an environment of heavy workloads and competing priorities…”

RAND “Finally, the outputs typically were described as intuitive and helpful.”

WHAT ARE THE DATA SOURCES? IS SENTURION DATA AND USE SECURE?

SENTURION input data is gathered from subject matter experts (SMEs) – analysts, country experts, academics and/or policy makers. The data collection can be conducted at any level depending on client needs and security requirements. As SENTURION is stand-alone software, with no internet requirements, client data and usage remain secure in any operational environment.

Below are selections of published and open source client quotes on SENTURION data collection.

Department of Defense “With only limited access to subject matter experts, robust analytic results were produced…”

RAND “…DoD users view the data requirements for the model as modest and sensible and think that the needed data usually can be provided by country or regional subject matter experts.”

Department of Defense: “This subject matter expert generated data input captures a snapshot of the current political landscape with a high degree of accuracy… The agent-based modeling approach allows for a consistent, systematic, significantly less-biased, and accurate analysis of the evolution of political dynamics… All forecasts were based on unclassified information…”

RAND “Experience with the model suggests that most subject matter experts tend to agree on the basic inputs to the model…Moreover, where analysts disagree, one can conduct sensitivity analyses to ascertain whether the differences actually result in different predicted outcomes—in cases where forecasts converge in spite of these differences, the forecast is robust.”

World Bank “Finally, with each successive use of the ABSM [SENTURION] in a given country, the Bank builds a library of data. Continued use of the ABSM [SENTURION] software can compile useful information for tracking patterns over time and sharing knowledge, both within the country team and across the Bank…”

HOW DO WE TRAIN PEOPLE ON SENTURION? IS THERE SUPPORT IF WE NEED HELP?

Initial training typically take 3-5 days in which ACERTAS senior analysts teach the analytical approach, methodology, data collection process, producing deliverables, as well as review all SENTURION capabilities.

We have trained hundreds of users, ranging from junior analysts with little to no analytical background to senior public sector decision makers, military officers and CEOs. This also includes SENTURION training on specific client use cases across political, military, economic, financial and social spectrums. ACERTAS provides all training and use case materials.

IS SENTURION OPERATIONALLY SECURE?

SENTURION does not require any internet connectivity besides normal operating system updates. All input data, metadata, usage and analysis remain secure and confidently controlled in each client’s unique operating environment.

SENTURION can be run on a laptop, desktop or server per client requests or security requirements.